Estimation of mortality and severity of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy

This section considers mortality rate data in Italy in March 2020 with a view to estimating Covid-19 mortality across the Italian regions. Deaths are classified by age group: a key factor that official reports have failed to include The Italian Higher Health Institute included subjects who tested positive to a swab and plotted data by region and age group at a national level. However, it did not provide information relating to deaths by age group in each region. In the present study deaths and mortality rates in March 2020 are analyzed first. Subsequently, the number of deaths from causes attributable to Covid-19 is estimated by comparing the number of deaths recorded in March 2020 with the number of deaths recorded in the same month over the previous 5 years, from 2015 to 2019. Starting with this comparison and keeping as a constraint the data provided by the ISS, that is the number of deaths from Covid-19 for each region and for each age group at national level, it was possible to obtain an estimate of deaths attributable to Covid-19, divided by age group in each region. Using mapping, the estimates are shown in a spatial layout that records different ages in each region. The results show that in some regions the impact on mortality was much higher than official data, which only accounted for subjects who had tested positive to swabbing. A visual mapping of these estimates confirms that Lombardy was the most affected region, in terms of both deaths and mortality rates. Regarding age, Covid-19 mortality is higher in the oldest age groups. The study also outlines a partition of Italy into three geographical areas, in accordance with different mortality rates and Covid-19 contagion severity. Results are represented using reflective mapping to better understand the impact of Covid-19 on mortality. The results confirm that the Covid-19 epidemic had a major impact on Italy, and an even more significant impact on Lombardy, also in terms of deaths and mortality.